Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Analysis

The market's current probability of 82.8% for this outcome appears to significantly underestimate the certainty presented by the provided facts. The news explicitly states, "Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz as of March 2-3, 2026, well before June 30." This means the event in question—Iran closing the strait by June 30—has already occurred. Details confirm a sustained effective closure: Iran's Revolutionary Guards formally declared it closed, traffic plummeted, commercial tanker movements halted, and major shipping lines suspended transits. Crucially, "No sources indicate a reopening by June 30." Since the closure has already happened and is expected to persist through the specified date, the outcome is effectively a certainty based on the given information. The market's lingering doubt is unfounded.