Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Analysis

The diplomatic thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China since 2023, prioritizes economic ties and regional stability, reducing the likelihood of direct military conflict. Despite proxy tensions in Yemen and Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, focused on regional leadership and OPEC+ stability, has shown no military preparation to strike Iran. Current geopolitical dynamics, including the US's deterrence posture and no significant Iranian provocations, further support the improbability of a Saudi strike by March 31. The market's 34% probability might overestimate the chance given ongoing diplomacy.