Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?

Analysis

The market defines 'reopen' specifically as 'open to scheduling by Israeli citizens or the general public' for departures and arrivals, with at least one civilian flight occurring. While a humanitarian corridor is indeed initiating by March 7 for citizen repatriation, it is explicitly described as 'limited to one incoming flight per hour and outbound flights empty.' This setup, prioritizing safe evacuation, does not meet the crucial criterion of being 'open to scheduling by... the general public' for general travel, especially with no outbound public flights. The airport's activities, while significant for citizens, do not constitute a general reopening under the market's strict definition. Thus, the conditions for a 'Yes' resolution will not be met by March 7. The crowd's 17.0% probability overestimates the likelihood given the strict resolution criteria.