Spread: Spurs (-5.5)

Analysis

The 5.5-point spread appears inflated despite San Antonio's strong home record. Key factors favoring Houston: Spurs are missing Harrison Barnes, removing a key wing defender and scorer. Rockets are fully healthy with Durant (26.1 PPG) and Sengun (20.5/9.1/6.2) available. Defensive parity: Both teams rank among league's top defenses (Spurs 3rd at 110.1, Rockets allow 109.3 PPG). This neutralizes San Antonio's biggest advantage. Rockets have covered 51.5% ATS on road, showing resilience away from home. Houston won 2 of last 3 games and has proven capable against quality opponents. While Spurs are 23-6 at home, the 5.5 spread implies 75%+ win probability for a team missing a rotation player against a defensively elite opponent. Houston's recent form (2-1 in last 3) and full health suggests they can keep this within single digits. Projected final: Spurs win by 3-4 points.