Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Analysis

The market at 0.5% is catastrophically mispriced. All available evidence overwhelmingly confirms military action continues through March 31: 1. Operations began Feb 28 and remain active as of March 28-29 with no end date 2. Conflict is ESCALATING - Houthis joined March 28, widening the war 3. Trump explicitly extended his deadline to April 6, meaning strikes continue past March 31 by design 4. Israel vows intensification of strikes 5. Iran retaliating with 80+ missile/drone waves - no ceasefire conditions exist 6. Pentagon deploying MORE troops (Marines, 82nd Airborne) for potential ground raids 7. Only one-third of Iran's missiles destroyed - mission far from complete There is no plausible mechanism for this to end in ~24 hours. No ceasefire is being negotiated. Both sides are escalating. The April 6 deadline explicitly frames continued operations past March 31. The $0 trading volume explains the mispricing - this market is completely illiquid and the 0.5% price is meaningless noise, not informed betting. My previous 84% was actually too conservative. This is as close to a certainty as geopolitical events get with a 1-day horizon and active ongoing operations.