Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Analysis

All verifiable leaderboards and news sources as of March 30, 2026, agree: Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 is currently the top-ranked AI model across major benchmarks (reasoning, coding, and overall performance). Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro is consistently credited as the second-best model, with OpenAI trailing in key domains. No credible source reports a change in this order approaching the market resolution date. With less than 48 hours remaining, it's highly improbable that rankings will shift so dramatically as to place Anthropic precisely at #2. Therefore, the extremely low market probability (~0.1%) reflects the real situation. Absent unseen, last-minute disruptions (unsupported by any evidence), the outcome is almost certain. Anthropic will not have the second-best model by March 31, 2026; they retain the top spot.