Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Analysis

Despite market odds at 0.1%, I predict YES with 70% confidence that Tesla will deliver less than 350,000 vehicles in Q1 2026. Polymarket's 63.5% probability for under 350k aligns with bearish analyst views (e.g., UBS at 345k) and reflects demand softness, especially in Europe with a 17% registration drop. China's wholesale growth is export-driven, not local demand. Tesla's two-year delivery decline and Q1 seasonality further support a shortfall. Wall Street consensus of 365,645 is optimistic given headwinds; historical variability suggests downside risk. My prior YES at 70% holds despite market shift, as fundamentals haven't improved.