Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Analysis

Apple currently holds the second position by market cap, with Alphabet as the third-largest. The gap is a narrow $15 billion. While Apple has recently declined relative to Alphabet, the provided context explicitly states it is "unlikely" for Apple to drop to third by March 31, 2026. The "most likely scenario" is that the current ranking (NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet) remains stable. Given only two weeks remain, a significant shift for Apple to fall below Alphabet but stay above Microsoft is improbable without major unforeseen events. Thus, the prediction is NO, with moderate confidence against the market's 45% for YES.