Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?

Analysis

The market distribution shows 72% probability for 65+ tweets vs only 30% for under 65 tweets over this 3-day period. The adjacent 65-89 range has 32.5% probability (highest single outcome) compared to 21% for 40-64. This suggests the market expects Musk to be moderately-to-highly active rather than in the lower-moderate 40-64 range. Given Musk's historically prolific tweeting patterns and the 72-hour window, the market's bias toward higher volume seems reasonable. The 40-64 range represents roughly 0.6-0.9 tweets per hour, which could happen during quieter periods, but the market probability distribution indicates expectations for more sustained activity. Without specific catalysts to suggest unusually low activity, I lean with the market's assessment favoring higher ranges.