Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?

Analysis

Current models favor 18°C for Shanghai March 22, supported by ECMWF/GFS ensemble predictions, southerly winds, and urban heat influences. Polymarket has 18°C at a substantial 32-45% probability. Observations from previous days (16.2°C on March 20 and ~17°C on March 21) align with 18°C projections for March 22. The 19°C outcome's probability is 28.5%, but trends and ensemble models suggest it's slightly less likely compared to 18°C. Other forecasts showing a warmer temperature carry risks but are less probable (20°C+ at 6-14%) due to predicted cloud cover and potential moderating effects. Given historical data trends and the latest weather models, 18°C is poised to be the peak, with slight downward adjustments from overcast skies potentially tipping odds further away from 19°C. No drastic weather changes are foreseen within 24 hours to favor the less likely 19°C prediction considerably.