Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Analysis

My initial prediction of YES was based on extrapolating the recent infection rate (88 new cases in the last week). However, the market's collapse to near 0% strongly suggests the determining factor is not the actual number of cases, but the officially reported number by the resolution date. The current official count is 1,575 as of the CDC's weekly report on March 26. The market closes on March 31. The next weekly CDC update, which is the likely resolution source, is not expected until after the market has closed. Therefore, it is highly probable that the official case count will remain at 1,575 for the purposes of resolving this market. The underlying spread of the virus is irrelevant if the official data source does not update in time. The market is pricing in this reporting lag, making a 'NO' outcome almost certain.