Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Analysis

Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have remained severely depressed due to the ongoing Iran-U.S./Israel conflict. Available data through March 16, 2026, shows a peak of 10 vessels on March 10, with several days recording 0, 2, or 5 transits. Despite a reported backlog of approximately 400 vessels in the Gulf of Oman, Iranian policy on selective clearances has not translated into significantly higher daily traffic. The market resolves based on IMF Portwatch data. With only 9 days remaining in March, and no prior day reaching anywhere near the 20-ship threshold, a sudden doubling of peak transit figures is highly improbable under the current geopolitical constraints. There is no clear mechanism or signal suggesting that such a surge will occur or be reported by IMF Portwatch within the remaining timeframe.