Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

Analysis

The 74.5% probability for negative Q1 2026 returns appears well-calibrated given the market closes in just 7 days on March 31, 2026. Most of Q1 2026 has already occurred. Key supporting evidence: The S&P 500 was already down 3% year-to-date as of early 2026 interviews, indicating poor performance through the quarter. While earnings growth projections remain positive (11.6% EPS growth expected), this reflects future quarters rather than Q1 performance. Bearish factors dominating Q1 include slower Fed easing expectations, inflation concerns, and oil price pressures. The high trading volume ($1,741 in 24hrs) suggests active price discovery as the quarter concludes. With most of Q1 2026 complete and early-year weakness established, the market's 74.5% probability for negative returns appears justified. I'm staying close to market consensus given limited information edge on near-term performance.