Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?

Analysis

The market definition for 'general tariff rate' includes both global and China-specific tariffs. As of February 2026, the average U.S. tariff on Chinese imports was 36%. For the rate to fall to the 15-25% band by March 31, 2026, a substantial de-escalation of numerous high-rate product-specific tariffs (e.g., 100% on EVs, 50% on semiconductors) would be required. There is no clear indication of such a drastic reduction occurring before the deadline. While a 10% global tariff is in effect (with plans to raise it to 15%), the cumulative effect of additional China-specific duties drives the average significantly higher. The March 31 summit introduces uncertainty, but current information does not support a broad reduction bringing the overall rate on China into the 15-25% range. The current market odds of 10.5% for this outcome, while low, align with the improbability of such a rapid shift from the 36% average.