Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March 26?

Analysis

The market appears to significantly undervalue the probability of Wellington's highest temperature reaching 20°C or higher on March 26. While MetService primarily forecasts a 19°C peak, it explicitly notes that clearer intervals could push the high to 20°C. Critically, historical data indicates that the average high for March 26 at Wellington Airport is 20°C (with ±2°C variability), and ensemble models also converge within an 18-20°C range. Given this strong historical precedent and the flexibility within current forecasts, the current 19.0% market probability for 20°C or higher seems unusually low and likely an undervaluation.