Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?

Analysis

Currently, the US focus is on an expensive campaign against Iran involving immense resources, overshadowing other regions like Somalia. No US strikes have been reported there through March 24, suggesting the probability of 5 or fewer strikes is very high. Given the absence of strikes with under a week left in the month and the specific interest in Iranian targets, US military resources are likely diverted from Somalia. Historical averages of 10-20 annual strikes by AFRICOM indicate usually a low frequency in a single month without a special trigger. Without recent strikes and considering the political dynamics, it appears unlikely this focus will shift dramatically to Somalia by month's end. Market odds appear to undervalue this possibility, swayed by the higher probability on 6-9 strikes likely mistaken for noise or past data. AFRICOM's announcements by April 4 could slightly adjust this prediction, but presently, there are structural military and political factors supporting few or no strikes, aligning with the 0-2 estimates.