Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)

Analysis

The current market probability of 18% for Trump to say "Khamenei" is low, and recent news strongly reinforces this unlikelihood. Reports indicate Trump is emphasizing productive talks with "unnamed Iranian leaders and officials" and a "respected" Iranian leader, expressing optimism for a deal "this week" to resolve war goals. Crucially, the context explicitly states that current coverage is "without referencing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei." Given Trump's current narrative of deal-making and seeking peace, gratuitously naming Khamenei would likely be counterproductive to the image of respectful, productive negotiations he is attempting to project. There is no information to suggest a shift in this approach that would prompt him to mention Khamenei directly. Therefore, based on current context and stated lack of reference, the probability remains very low.