Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?

Analysis

Weather models and KMA forecasts strongly favor 13-14°C for March 26, with market pricing 12-13°C at 55% combined probability vs just 13.4% for 11°C. Key factors against 11°C: Official KMA forecast pins 13°C as daily high, ensemble models (ECMWF/GFS) lean toward 14°C, urban heat island effect adds 1-2°C upside in Seoul, and recent March 24 high of 15°C suggests warming trend. At 1-day lead time, weather forecasts are highly accurate. The 11°C outcome sits below forecast consensus and historical patterns. Market correctly prices this as low-probability event.