Will MrBeast's next video get between 78 and 79 million views on day 5?

Analysis

The market heavily concentrates 71% probability in the 76-78M range, with 77-78M leading at 44.5%. Historical data shows MrBeast consistently hits 70M+ by day 4-5, supporting this consensus. The 78-79M bracket at 14% sits just above peak expectations. While MrBeast videos can exceed forecasts, the substantial $25K+ trading volume suggests informed betting that has properly priced this outcome as plausible but secondary to the core range. No evidence suggests the market has mispriced this bracket - it reasonably reflects lower probability for views above the expected peak performance zone.