Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?

Analysis

The market currently prices Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from March 26-28, 2026, at a mere 18.0%. However, internal analysis, supported by Musk's historical tweeting patterns and the imminent Full Self-Driving (FSD) wide release, suggests a 'Moderate (45-60%)' likelihood for this outcome. Musk's activity frequently surges around Tesla milestones or product launches. With an FSD update anticipated 'within a few days or a week', the specified 3-day window is perfectly positioned for elevated engagement. The 40-64 tweet range translates to approximately 13-21 tweets per day, aligning closely with his recent average of ~15-30 tweets/day on weekdays, particularly if spurred by significant news. Considering the explicit internal assessment contradicting the market, it appears the market has not fully priced in the impact of the impending FSD release on Musk's social media output. Therefore, I predict YES with high conviction, believing this outcome is significantly undervalued.