Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 28?

Analysis

Current projections indicate a higher likelihood of temperatures reaching 21°C, with market odds of 37% for 21°C compared to 17% for 20°C. The forecasts from MetService suggest a high near 20°C, but the trend is leaning slightly warmer, supported by updated ensemble models. Key factors influencing this are the expected southerly airflow clearing by March 28, permitting diurnal heating, and cloud cover patterns which could suppress temperatures only slightly lower. Given the data, the potential for afternoon clearing increases the probability of slightly higher temperatures than 20°C, making 21°C the most likely recorded temperature. Therefore, while 20°C remains possible, the majority consensus in forecasts and modeled outcomes favors a result exceeding 20°C.