Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 20​26?

Analysis

The provided intelligence for February 2026 is definitive and points squarely toward an "Up" resolution. Multiple major layoff events were reported during the month, including at Block (4,000+), WiseTech (2,000), and Panasonic (2,000). The broader Q1 2026 context reinforces this, with over 55,900 tech jobs cut in the first 74 days of the year—a pace rivaling the peak layoff years of 2023-2025. Key drivers cited, such as restructuring for AI efficiency, are long-term trends, not temporary factors. Crucially, no sources indicate a decline in layoff activity. With all data showing sustained, elevated levels, the 10% market odds for "Up" appear completely disconnected from the factual ground truth. This represents a clear information gap, justifying very high confidence in an "Up" outcome.