Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 29 be between 2,800,000 and 3,000,000?

Analysis

Ongoing government shutdown is causing significant TSA staffing shortages, with callout rates exceeding 40% at major airports, deterring travel and likely reducing March 29 passenger volumes below the 2.8-3M range typical for a busy Saturday. This aligns with the current probability of 30.5% for that range vs higher probability for 2.6-2.8M. Disruptions, delays, and long lines further reduce travel demand. No positive updates suggest recovery of pre-shutdown volumes by then, so expect lower TSA figures than the target.