Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 29?

Analysis

Current market odds heavily favor temperatures above 18°C for March 29 in Wellington, primarily pointing towards 19°C or 20°C. Forecasts from MetService and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS align with these predictions, indicating warmer conditions with highs likely between 19-21°C. Historical data supports this trend, with late March averages typically around 19.5°C and recent highs already touching 18°C. The lack of significant cooling factors, such as persistent cloud cover or strong southerlies, decreases the likelihood of an 18°C maximum. Therefore, the chance of exactly 18°C is only moderately supported at best, making a 'NO' prediction reasonable given these conditions.