Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 11°C or below on March 29?

Analysis

The current market probability of 12.0% for Madrid's highest temperature being 11°C or below on March 29 is well-supported by meteorological consensus. Ensemble forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models consistently predict daily highs in the 12-13°C range. Polymarket trader sentiment also strongly favors higher temperatures (12-14°C), showing minimal support for the 11°C or lower outcome. Factors like northerly flow and a high-pressure ridge are influencing these subdued but not exceptionally cold predictions. Given the strong alignment between expert models and market odds, a temperature of 11°C or below is highly improbable for March 29.