Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?

Analysis

Recent developments indicate the DHS shutdown is likely to end before March 31. The Senate has approved a funding bill, and it is pending final passage in the House. This bipartisan deal is poised to be enacted due to recent White House concessions, signaling significant progress. Historically, shutdowns have ended swiftly with bipartisan agreements and temporary resolutions. Although the 61.1% probability suggests the shutdown might extend past March 31, the current legislative momentum and procedural signals indicate otherwise. Political dynamics have aligned towards resolving the shutdown imminently, making an extension unlikely. Given past precedents and the current political climate, I believe the shutdown will resolve before the market closes.