Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?

Analysis

Multiple credible news sources from March 28-29, 2026 confirm Houthi missile attacks on Israel have already taken place: - 'Houthis launch second missile attack on Israel, vow continued strikes' (Khabarhub) - 'Yemen's Houthis Fire at Israel and Vow Further Attacks' (Freerepublic) - 'As war on Iran enters second month, Yemen's Houthis open new front' (Al Jazeera) The event has already occurred with the market closing in ~1 day. The 19% market price appears severely mispriced, likely due to $0 trading volume indicating extreme illiquidity rather than informed consensus. The only uncertainty is resolution criteria: if 'strike on Israel' requires a missile to successfully land (not be intercepted), then the answer could be NO since reports indicate Israeli defenses intercepted the missiles. However, standard military terminology considers a 'strike' to be the attack itself, not just successful hits. The Houthis conducted strikes directed at Israel — the operation occurred. With confirmed attacks already having taken place and only 1 day remaining, this should resolve YES barring a very narrow resolution definition requiring physical impact on Israeli soil. My previous 85% was appropriate; the market's decline to 19% reflects illiquidity, not information.