Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Analysis

Market severely underpricing at 12.9% despite recent evidence of controlled transit scaling. Late March data shows daily transits reached ~12 vessels under managed throughput, up from 5-7 earlier. This puts current levels right in the 10-20 target range. Key factors: Iran maintaining controlled passage rather than complete shutdown, 7-day moving average smooths daily volatility, and recent trend suggests sustained low-but-not-zero activity. With backlog of stranded vessels and some commercial pressure for selective transits, the ~12 daily level appears sustainable. Market's 83% odds on 0-10 range reflects earlier period of near-zero activity, but hasn't fully adjusted to recent modest recovery. IMF Portwatch 7-day average likely captures this controlled transit regime.