Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

Analysis

Current 38.5% market odds appear slightly conservative given the volatile geopolitical environment. WTI trading near $98-100 needs only ~20% spike to hit $120, achievable during April given: • Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz (15-20% global supply at risk) • March already demonstrated 50% surge capability, peaking above $101 • Resolution only requires touching $120 once during entire month, not sustained levels • Oil markets exhibit high volatility during supply crises Key risks: US inventory builds and potential de-escalation. However, infrastructure recovery would take months even post-peace, supporting elevated price floor. Market probability seems reasonable but underweights tail risk of supply shock or escalation. In volatile geopolitical environment, brief spikes above $120 remain plausible.