Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2?

Analysis

Market odds of 13.3% for 16°C+ appear appropriate given strong meteorological consensus. Multiple global models (ECMWF/GFS) project 12-14°C highs under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds limiting heating. While KMA mentions 'up to 16°C', recent April 1 actual of 14°C under similar conditions aligns with cooler model guidance. Key factors supporting sub-16°C outcome: residual cloud cover reducing solar heating by 1-2°C, persistent northerly cold air advection, chilly 4°C morning low requiring significant daytime warming, and strong trader consensus (73.5% combined probability for 13-15°C range). Weather forecasting accuracy at 24-hour lead time is very high. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 13-14°C reflects genuine meteorological constraints rather than speculation. Urban heat island effects provide minor upside risk, but insufficient to overcome the cooler bias from atmospheric conditions.