Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 4?

Analysis

Reference class: Crypto assets attempting to break above key resistance levels with bearish sentiment and short timeframes, starting at ~15% probability of success. Inside view: ETH currently at $2,050.8, needing a ~2.4% rise in less than 1 day to clear $2,100. Recent price action shows a break below $2,100 and firm resistance at $2,100-$2,150. Bearish sentiment prevails with a fear index of 12 and daily chart dominance. On-chain data indicates falling user retention and ETF outflows ($392M). While whale accumulation and rising long positions offer a minor counter-signal for a potential bounce, current momentum strongly favors holding below $2,100. Overall, factors reduce the probability of breaking resistance. Independent estimate for YES: 8%. Independent estimate for NO: 92%. Market odds for YES: 10.5%. Market odds for NO: 89.5%. Divergence is small (<5pp), so adjusting confidence slightly towards market odds.