Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Analysis

The United States just hit Kharg Island and made a deliberate choice to spare the oil terminal. This wasn't collateral damage luck — American planners knew exactly where Iran's energy jugular sits, and they chose to leave it alone. Why? Because blowing up a facility that handles nearly all of Iran's crude exports would send global oil prices into orbit and wreck the US economy in the process. Washington wants to punish Iran's military capabilities, not trigger an energy crisis that hurts American voters at the pump. The pattern is unmistakable. Trump has threatened Iran's oil infrastructure before but consistently pulled back when it mattered. The playbook stays the same: hit the military sites, spare the cash generators. With just days left until April 15, you'd need a massive provocation or a total strategy flip to change course now. Iran's beefed-up defenses around the island make a strike even trickier, and there's zero indication the White House is pivoting toward that kind of escalation. I'd bet against a strike happening — the strategic logic is too strong, and the timeline is too tight for Washington to suddenly torch a playbook that's working.