Cavaliers vs. Hawks

Analysis

The Cavaliers just dominated Atlanta 122-116, but that was at home with their full arsenal. Now they're walking into State Farm Arena without Jarrett Allen, and that changes everything. Allen is Cleveland's defensive anchor and rim protector. Without him clogging the paint, Trae Young gets cleaner driving lanes and Atlanta's bigs can operate freely inside. The Hawks were embarrassed in that last meeting — they'll be fired up to respond in front of their own crowd. Yes, Evan Mobley stepped up big last game with 22 and 19, and Donovan Mitchell is always dangerous. But asking a road team playing on short rest without their starting center to beat a motivated playoff-hungry Hawks squad is a tall order. Atlanta sits at 45-35 and needs every win they can get for seeding. The Cavs proved they can beat these Hawks when everything clicks, but basketball is about matchups and circumstances. Home court, better health, and the revenge factor all point one direction. I'm backing Atlanta to even the season series — the Hawks have too many advantages to pass up here.