Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?

Analysis

Sure, those Thursday previews were nothing to write home about—$750K is soft for a wide release. And yes, Super Mario is still crushing it in week two. But here's what the doubters are missing. Halle Bailey just came off The Little Mermaid, and Regé-Jean Page still carries serious Bridgerton cachet. That combo playing across 3,151 theaters is a formula that works, even when the previews underwhelm. Rom-coms don't live or die on Thursday night—they build through the weekend when couples actually go to the movies. That 85% on Rotten Tomatoes matters more than people think. It gives the film enough critical cover to attract the older crowd who skip the loud blockbusters. And while studio tracking puts it at a borderline $7-9 million, most industry forecasts are clustering higher, in the $8-12 million range. The comp to Marry Me is fair, but that film scraped to $7.9 million with worse reviews and less star wattage. This one's got just enough juice to edge past that mark. I'd bet on Tuscany crossing $8 million by Sunday night—not by much, but enough to prove the stars still sell tickets when the movie doesn't completely bomb with critics.