Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between April 1 and April 30?

Analysis

SOFR has been glued to the 3.57%-3.66% range through early April, tracking the federal funds rate at 3.64%. For it to hit 3.76% this month, you'd need a serious disruption — either an emergency Fed hike or a sudden liquidity crunch in repo markets. Neither is on the horizon. Reverse repo volumes have been dropping below a trillion dollars, which tells you cash is plentiful, not scarce. When money's sloshing around like this, rates don't spike. The Fed's next meeting isn't until April 28-29, and while some hawks made noise in the March minutes, that's not enough to move overnight rates twelve basis points higher in the next two weeks. Sure, the 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.78%, suggesting markets expect higher rates eventually. But that's a forward-looking signal, not a trigger for SOFR to breach the top of the FOMC's current target range right now. Unless we get a shocking inflation print or a money market seizure out of nowhere, SOFR's staying put. I'd fade this bet hard — the conditions for a spike just aren't there, and boring money markets are exactly what we're getting.