Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Analysis

Bayern Munich walk into this DFB-Pokal semi-final as clear favourites, and rightly so. They're sitting top of the Bundesliga while Leverkusen languish in sixth, and that gulf in class should show when it matters most. Their head-to-head record tells the story—26 wins in 46 meetings means Bayern know how to beat this opponent. Leverkusen's defensive vulnerabilities are glaring. Without Christian Kofane and with Martin Terrier absent, their backline looks makeshift and exposed. Bayern's attack, led by Harry Kane's predatory movement, is built to exploit exactly these kinds of cracks. Yes, they managed a 1-1 draw last month, but that was Leverkusen grinding out a stubborn result on home turf. This is a cup semi-final where Bayern will push hard for a statement win to reach the final. Even with Gnabry and Musiala dealing with knocks, Bayern's squad depth is simply superior. Kane's been relentless up top, and if Alphonso Davies returns to stretch play wide, Leverkusen's shaky defense will be under siege all night. I'd back Bayern to win by two or more here—their quality and big-game experience should shine through when the pressure's on.