Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

Analysis

Everyone's anchoring on that 20 posts per day average from the last three days, which puts Elon right at 60 tweets for this period. But that math assumes he keeps up the pace through Saturday, and that's where the bet falls apart. Weekends are kryptonite for Musk's posting velocity. Sure, he'll probably light up Thursday and Friday with political takes and Starlink drama, but Saturday's drag is real. We're talking about a three-day window where one full day typically sees him pull back hard — and there's no scheduled event or controversy big enough to override that pattern. The market's treating 40-64 like a safe middle ground, and I get why the range feels comfortable. But comfortable doesn't mean correct. Two of the models barely leaned toward that bucket, hovering around a coin flip, which tells you the conviction isn't there. The weekend effect is being underpriced. I'd fade the 40-64 range here and bet on him coming in light — the floor's more likely to drop out than people think when Saturday rolls around.