Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Analysis

Here's the cold truth: the Bab el-Mandeb has never been effectively closed, not during wars, not during standoffs, not during anything the Middle East has thrown at it in living memory. The Houthis are genuinely disruptive — shipping costs are brutal, insurance is through the roof, and transit numbers have cratered. But there's a canyon-wide gap between "miserable to navigate" and "completely shut." IMF data confirms arrivals are still clearing the threshold this market requires for a closure call. The Houthis don't have gates to lock — they rely on fear and economics, not physical blockades. U.S. naval presence adds another layer of deterrence that hasn't gone anywhere. One dissenting voice worth hearing: a sudden dramatic escalation — a major naval incident, a serious Iranian push — isn't impossible. Black swans don't announce themselves. But base cases aren't built on black swans, and there's no credible sign of one materializing before May 31. The saber-rattling has been loud since 2023, and the strait has absorbed every bit of it without crossing the closure line. History rhymes loudly enough here to be deafening. Stay firmly on NO — the geopolitical and operational reality simply doesn't support a full closure materializing in time.