Spread: Spurs (-2.5)

Analysis

The single biggest factor in this game isn't matchup history or coaching — it's whether Victor Wembanyama can actually go at full strength. Concussion protocols aren't something teams rush, and a limited Wemby is essentially a different game plan entirely. San Antonio's entire identity runs through him. Portland already showed what happens when he's off the floor. That Game 2 comeback wasn't luck — the Blazers have a gritty, adaptable offense that doesn't need Lillard to make life difficult for a short-handed Spurs squad on the road. Moda Center will be electric after that win. Yes, the Spurs have a monster all-time record against Portland in the playoffs, and yes, some models here think San Antonio bounces back. That's a real counterargument and this is genuinely close. But a -2.5 road spread with a star player in concussion protocol is asking the Spurs to do a lot under pressure. Portland only needs to keep it tight — and they've just proven they can do exactly that. I'd back the Blazers to cover: the home crowd, the momentum, and Wemby's question mark are all pointing the same direction.