Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

Analysis

Two straight one-point wins at State Farm Arena tell you everything you need to know: the Hawks don't just survive at home, they find ways to win ugly when the game is on the line. CJ McCollum hit a game-winner in Game 3, and that kind of clutch execution doesn't evaporate overnight. Yes, the Knicks have their full roster while Atlanta is short Landale in the frontcourt — that's a real edge for Towns and Robinson inside. But New York has had chances to close these games out and bottled it twice. Brunson is carrying a heavy load, and the offense keeps going quiet when Atlanta tightens the screws late. The Hawks are playing with house money and feeding off that crowd. Playoff basketball at home, backed by momentum and proven crunch-time execution, is a powerful thing. Two models did favor the Knicks covering, so this is genuinely close — but the case for Atlanta keeping it tight is stronger than the market suggests. Back the Hawks to keep this within the margin — they've earned the benefit of the doubt until New York proves they can actually finish.