Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets

Analysis

The Mets are handing this game away before the first pitch. Francisco Lindor, their best player and the heartbeat of that lineup, is sitting with a calf strain. Without him, this offense looks toothless. Then there's Senga. An 8.83 ERA isn't bad luck — that's a pitcher who can't get big-league hitters out right now. The Rockies already jumped on him and this Mets team in Thursday's opener, winning 4-3 at Citi Field. That wasn't a fluke; that was a team reading a vulnerable opponent and executing. Yes, Colorado is missing some rotation pieces of their own, but that matters a lot less when the team you're facing is this compromised. The Mets are 9-17, their bullpen is already stretched heading into a doubleheader, and their home field isn't the fortress it should be. Both clubs are struggling near the bottom of their divisions, but the Rockies are the healthier, more confident team right now. They've already proven they can win this series on this field. I'm backing Colorado here — when your opponent is missing their star shortstop and trotting out a starter who's been getting lit up all season, you don't overthink it, you just take the value.