Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?

Analysis

Seven cents. That's all that stands between current prices and the target, and yet the market can't get there. When a gap looks small but the clock is nearly out, that's not an opportunity — that's a dead end. The US-Iran ceasefire did exactly what ceasefires do: it yanked the geopolitical fear premium right out of crude oil. Without that panic bid underneath prices, the upward pressure simply isn't there. Gas has stabilized, not surged. Yes, summer blend transitions and weekend demand can nudge things around at the margins. And Grok isn't wrong that we're tantalizingly close — a refinery hiccup or a surprise supply report could theoretically close the gap. But "theoretically close" has lost people money since markets were invented. The pattern here is familiar: a price runs up on fear, fear fades, price stalls just short of the headline number, and everyone waiting for the final push gets left holding the bag. That's this trade. With momentum flat and geopolitical tailwinds gone, I'd fade the late surge entirely — the smart play is staying on the "No" side until something actually changes, and nothing's changing in time.