Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 30?

Analysis

The market has spoken, and it's not backing 16°C. The weight of opinion is sitting firmly behind 15°C as the more likely high for Wellington tomorrow — and when one temperature is pulling that kind of support against its nearest rival, you don't ignore it. Yes, today hit 19°C, and April averages traditionally sit a touch warmer than the mid-teens. But that's exactly the point — a cooling trend is already baked in, and the models seem to agree on where that trend stops. Landing precisely on 16°C requires conditions to shift just right overnight, and right now there's no signal suggesting that's happening. Then there's the resolution headache. Multiple data sources, admin discretion when they conflict — that's extra fuzziness you're absorbing when you bet on an exact degree. It's not a dealbreaker, but it's another reason to avoid the more speculative call. The smart play here is clear: 16°C is a hopeful guess dressed up as a forecast, and the cooler reading looks far more grounded — I'd stay well clear of backing 16°C when the evidence is this consistently pointing the other way.