Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?

Analysis

Since April 27, the planet has produced exactly zero earthquakes at magnitude 5.5 or higher. Zero. Not a slow start — a dead stop. And with days already burned through the window, the math is brutal: you'd need two or three qualifying quakes every single remaining day just to scrape past nine. That's not a recovery, that's a miracle. The USGS data shows only minor tremors near Fiji and Colombia — the kind of low-key tectonic murmuring that signals calm, not chaos. Yes, earthquakes can cluster and swarms can arrive fast — that's the one genuine counterargument, and it's why one model here broke with the consensus. But clustering doesn't conjure quakes from nothing; it accelerates activity that's already building. Right now, nothing is building. Historical weekly averages are real, but averages lie about individual weeks. Short windows frequently run cold, and this one has already used up its quiet quota several times over. The quiet start isn't a fluke to bet against — it's the signal itself. I'd back the under hard here, because the ground has had plenty of chances to speak up, and it's said nothing.