Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?

Analysis

The Reserve Bank of Australia is staring down numbers that make a rate hold almost indefensible. Headline inflation is running well above the RBA's target band, energy costs are surging, and core inflation remains stubbornly elevated. This isn't a close call. The board has already moved back-to-back in February and March, taking rates to 4.1%. That's not the behaviour of a central bank about to go quiet. Governor Bullock has telegraphed hawkish intent, and even a narrow split vote last time didn't stop them pulling the trigger. With energy-driven price pressures expected to push the next quarterly read even higher, there is simply no data the RBA can point to and say 'job done.' A pause here would torch their credibility after months of tough talk. Markets have read the room correctly — a hike is the overwhelmingly logical next move. Yes, there are always whispers about growth slowdowns, but the RBA's primary fight right now is inflation, not GDP hand-wringing. Holding steady would be a stunning reversal that nobody inside the building appears to be pushing for. I'd back another 25 basis point rise — the data, the rhetoric, and the institutional will are all pointing the same direction.