Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5

Analysis

Everything about this tie screams low-scoring. The first leg finished 1-1 — cagey, tight, exactly what you'd expect when Simeone sets his side up to suffocate and counter. The second leg at the Emirates won't be any different. Atlético's attack is genuinely hobbled. Lookman and Sorloth are carrying fitness doubts coming off the Copa del Rey final, and without their main cutting threats, asking this side to carve open one of Europe's meanest defenses is a stretch. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in three of their last five matches and barely let Newcastle sniff in a 1-0 win — they are built to grind. The stakes also do the work here. Semi-final second legs are not occasions for adventurous football. Both managers know one mistake ends your season. Arsenal will be patient and controlled; Atlético will sit deep and look to nick something on the break. That's a recipe for midfield wrestling, not a thriller. One model flagged the possibility of goals if Arsenal push forward recklessly, but given how disciplined Arteta's side has been all season, that feels like wishful thinking from the Over camp. Back the Under — two cautious heavyweights with too much to lose will keep the scoreline tight.