Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?

Analysis

The earth has been suspiciously still this week, but history isn't on the side of that silence holding. Long-term USGS data puts the expected rate at roughly one significant tremor every couple of weeks globally — meaning a zero-event window is the exception, not the rule. Near-misses are already stacking up: a M6.0 hit the Philippines on May 4, just shy of the threshold. These events often cluster, and with several days still left in the window, there's plenty of runway for something bigger to follow. Two of the models behind this forecast lean the other way — pointing to quiet fault lines and no obvious warning signs as reasons to expect calm. That's not nothing. But an absence of foreshocks doesn't guarantee an absence of quakes. Big earthquakes regularly strike without announcing themselves, and recent lulls have a habit of ending abruptly. Subduction zones don't care about our calendars or our betting slips. I wouldn't back zero events when the averages and the near-misses both suggest otherwise — there's still too much week left to count on the silence.