Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Analysis

Iran doesn't close its airspace on a whim. The last major shutdown came when the conflict was running white-hot — and even then, Tehran moved quickly to restore operations once the immediate pressure eased. The airport just reopened after a 57-day closure. That's not the behavior of a regime gearing up for another dramatic aviation shutdown within the same fortnight. The US-Iran talks in Pakistan are the real story here. Both sides clearly want a diplomatic off-ramp before things spiral further. When negotiations are live, neither party wants to hand the other a propaganda win by making a reckless move. Iran knows how to play this game — and right now, the game calls for restraint. Yes, the region is tense. The Hormozgan explosions and Strait of Hormuz incidents are real. Gemini's warning about a volatile tinderbox isn't wrong on the facts — it's just wrong on the timing. Tensions alone don't trigger closures; full-scale escalation does, and we're not there yet. The resolution rules also demand a *major* closure. Partial flight restrictions — Iran's typical playbook under moderate pressure — won't qualify. With just days left in the window and diplomacy still breathing, fade the noise and stay on the No side.