Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?

Analysis

The tracking is genuinely centered on this bracket — Variety's 40-45m, Mendelson's 'just over 43m', Comic Book Movie's 40-45m all point right here. That's the bull case and it's not nothing. But here's where I get off the bus. Warner Bros' own studio number is 35m, and studios usually under-promise by a hair, not by 8m. When the studio whisper is that low while public tracking is higher, the real number tends to settle in between — which puts the most likely landing zone in the 35-40m bucket, not 40-45m. That's also where the smart money on Polymarket has piled in. Then there's the competition problem. Devil Wears Prada 2 owns Mother's Day, and that's a real audience-share grab from anyone going to a non-MK movie. Reviews are mixed-to-tacky. The original MK reboot did 23m in pandemic conditions, so yes, this should clear that handily, but a 'fans only' sequel rarely overperforms tracking. The 40-45m bracket is plausible but it's one of three live buckets (35-40, 40-45, 45-50) and the middle one usually doesn't take the crown. I'd be on 35-40m at the window. Pass on this slice.