Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Analysis

Serbia is not a banker, but I’d rather be on the qualifying side. In a fifteen-song semi where ten go through, a competent entry starts with a decent path, and Serbia has been handed the producer gift of closing the show. Slot fifteen is where you want to be: fresh in the room, fresh in the recap, and usually there for a reason. The worry is that the oxygen in this semi is already being sucked up by bigger beasts. Finland has the fan-club noise, while Sweden, Greece and Israel are being talked about as serious players. That leaves Serbia scrapping in the messy middle with Belgium, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Croatia and the rest. With no clear rehearsal heat for Lavina in the supplied notes, I can’t call this safe. Still, Eurovision semis are about avoiding the bottom five, not winning the night. A late draw and a forgiving cut line make Serbia a narrow yes for me. I’d back Serbia to qualify, but I’d keep the stake sensible.